The Syrian Army didn’t run. They were ordered to stand down.
Bashar al-Assad fled Syria with his family and headed, allegedly, to Moscow. Syria - its military and civilians – were left to the mercy of some of the most merciless fighters of the 21st Century.
Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the leader of HTS (aka, al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra Front, Jobhat al-Nusra) is now giving speeches from the Umayyad Mosque while green flag waving militants fire wildly into the air in celebration. The Presidential Palace has been looted and the statue of Hafez al-Assad has been torn down, dragged through the street, and beheaded.
The entirety of the Sednaya prison has now been emptied. Sednaya contained large numbers of terrorists who are now roaming free but it also contained innocent people who never should have been caged in the first place.
Millions of Syrians - some who supported the government, some who were apolitical – are now in fear for their lives, waiting to hear if they must be veiled or if the new “government” will simply exterminate them.
If one observes the proceedings of the previous week, it is beyond clear that an international deal was made between Russia, the United States, Turkey, Israel, Assad, Hezbollah, and leader of the army of fighters inside Syrian territory.
The terrorists, for their part, claim their victory is the result of hard-fought battles and military prowess. This, of course, is laughable. These forces could never militarily conquer a Syrian province without the help of foreign militaries. Tellingly, some of their ranks have openly expressed friendly relations with Israel and have stated that they hope to see Israeli investment in the new Syria.
Netanyahu has been open about Israel’s stance and involvement in overthrowing Assad, going so far as to take credit for the event in his own statements. He’s not wrong either, since the events in Syria are directly connected to the Israeli war in Gaza and on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Ever since the assassination of Nasrallah and the exploding pager attack, an admittedly brilliant act of intelligence and sophistication on the part of Israel, Hezbollah was sent reeling. Combined with the direct military operation and the fact that Hezbollah was thrown out of sorts by virtue of its Lebanese command structure being decapitated, forces that Hezbollah had deployed successfully to Syria were redeployed to Lebanon, thus leaving a chasm in the lines of defense in Syria against ISIS “opposition” forces. This, of course, weakened Iran and, as Israel continually bombed “Iranian-backed militias” in Syria and assassinating figures in Iran proper, all to the tepid response of a few pathetic missile blasts aimed at Israel (few of them hitting their targets), Iran’s actual military weakness as a regional power and counterbalance to Israel was laid bare for all to see.
Thus, it is understandable why Netanyahu would claim credit for the overthrow, if one believes that the weakening of Hezbollah was the only factor. Neither the Syrian military nor the military of Iran, Iraq, Russia, or Hezbollah came to the rescue, however.
Iraq, struggling to maintain its own teetering government, did not have the ability to defend Syria. But Russia did and so did Iran. The latter, constantly howling about the Zionist entity and the need to drive the Western-backed forces out of Syria, suddenly began referring to terrorists as “armed groups” and stated that Syria should plead its case to the UN.
Likewise, save for a few wanton bombs fired toward Idlib, Russia also took a 180 degree turn in its tone, rambling on about conferences set for 2025 where these issues would be discussed.
On the other side, Turkey was fully behind the jihadist push, despite playing coy in official statements.
So with all this taken together, we can only conclude a major deal was reached between Russia, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey, the United States, and Israel. All of these events taking place at the same time are beyond the possibility of coincidence. Assad’s flight to Moscow alone demonstrates prior knowledge on the part of Assad and Russia. Turkey’s assumed green lighting of the Idlib-based terrorists to begin their march, Israel’s attack on Hezbollah months prior and its continual bombing of Hezbollah, Iranian, and Syrian forces/civilian infrastructure in Syria and the quick withdrawal of Hezbollah/Iranian forces point to a deal also, as does the sudden about face change in language from Russia and Iran.
The details of the deal are still unknown and likely will be for some time to come. We may never know, in fact, and may be left to read between the lines as the future unfolds.
Of course, it is always useful in situations like these to first ask who benefits? Indeed, it is also relevant to ask who loses?
Viewing the situation as it currently stands, the clear loser is, obviously, Syria. Besides Syria, however, Iran is the biggest loser in the geopolitical chess game. Its forces decimated in Lebanon, Iran’s inability to defend Syria leaves its land bridge to Lebanon, the famed “Shiite Crescent,” completely broken and leaves Lebanese Hezbollah forces stranded to face Israel alone.
Russia is no big winner either, with the future of its military bases in question. Even keeping its bases, it will be surrounded by hostile or potentially hostile forces as well as potentially bloody chaos and civil war.
What then, would have convinced Iran and Russia to have agreed to sacrifice Syria? Was it the carrot or the stick? Were they enticed by some promise on the part of the United States or Israel or were they threatened with something existential? We may never know in our lifetimes.
Reports of Turkish forces attacking American-backed Kurds and seizing territory from them, if allowed continue, may shed some light on what enticed Turkey into the fray since Erdogan has long viewed Kurdish Communist revolutionaries as his mortal enemy.
Israel comes out of this the undeniable winner, however. Having reduced Gaza to rubble and weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon, it has also removed Hezbollah and Iran in Syria almost entirely. In addition, it has moved troops to the UN Golan Heights buffer zone, seizing yet more territory. At the time of the writing of this article, Israel has launched an unprecedented bombing campaign against Syrian military depots and infrastructure, forcing whomever takes over the country next to rebuild its military from scratch. Syria now no longer has an Air Force and its military equipment is almost entirely destroyed.
Israel is making good on what it has long stated – that it would prefer jihadists to have control of Syria over Assad. A weak gaggle of terrorists next door can be deal with militarily much easier than a stronger Syria with trained soldiers and an Air Force. A collection of ethno states would also be acceptable in the Israeli view and, presumably, so would civil war.
The Deep State currently running the United States seems intent on boobytrapping the entire world before the Trump Administration takes office. From providing Ukraine with long range missiles and rampant Israeli aggression destabilizing the region to making Syria the terrorist capital of the world the Trump administration will have its hands full when it takes the reins of power.
The only possible benefits to the fall of Assad is that now, with terrorists finally in control of the country, the United States may lift the brutal sanctions it had placed on Syria, doing as much damage to the country as the war itself.
For his part, Jolani has publicly stated his intent to create a Syria for all Syrians, regardless of religion and ethnicity, that everyone will have the right to work, and women will not be forced to wear the hijab. Some reports have claimed Jolani is offering amnesty for Syrian soldiers who were conscripted. He has also called for a ban on revenge killings and looting. One can only hope he stays true to his statements. Having seen the work of HTS throughout the Syrian conflict, however, it would be wise not to have high expectations.
For the Syrian people, there is shock and horror at the thought of once again being subjected to takfiri terrorists. For many, however, there is relief in that now, at least, it is finally over. Perhaps things will somehow get better. Hopes may not be high but at least hope still exists. At least for the moment.
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